PsycNET®

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. Vol 92(4), Apr 2007, 665-677.

The pseudocontingency (PC) illusion is investigated in a simulated classroom setting. Related to the notion of ecological correlations, PCs arise when the assessment of contingencies at the individual level is affected by the base-rate relations at the group level. Positive PCs arise when base rates of 2 variables are skewed in the same direction (e.g., high ability and high motivation), whereas negative PCs arise when base rates are skewed in opposite directions. Experiment 1 demonstrates that PCs between student ability and motivation are contingent on effective base-rate assessment at the group level, with a bias toward positive PCs reflecting prior expectancies. Ruling out prior expectancies, Experiment 2 yields symmetric positive and negative PCs. Experiment 3 provides evidence for PC effects on gender stereotypes. Finally, Experiment 4 extends PCs from group base rates to individual student base rates, ruling out an explanation in terms of capacity deficits or inability to assess individuating information. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved)

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